Texas Hold'em Hand vs. Hand Odds

When two Texas Hold’em hands go all-in before the flop, the winner is decided by their equity — the share of the time each hand wins if the board runs out to the river. A few matchups come up constantly: pocket aces crush pocket kings about 82% to 18%, a pair against two overcards is a near coin flip at roughly 55/45, and a dominated hand like A-Q against A-K wins only about a quarter of the time. Knowing these numbers tells you when getting all-in is a triumph and when it’s a disaster.

The classic matchups

These are the pre-flop equities every player should know. Figures are for a single hand run to the river; suits shift them by a point or two.

Matchup	Type	Favorite’s equity
A-A vs. K-K	Pair over pair	~82%
A-A vs. random hand	Best vs. anything	~85%
Q-Q vs. A-K	Pair vs. two overcards (“coin flip”)	~55%
A-K vs. A-Q	Dominating hand	~73%
A-K vs. 7-2	Big vs. worst hand	~66%
A-Ks vs. Q-Qs	Suited overcards vs. pair	~46%

Pair over pair: the cooler

When a bigger pair meets a smaller one, the bigger pair is a huge favorite — about 82%. The underdog’s only real outs are hitting a set (two more of their card, roughly 1-in-5 to do so by the river) or catching lucky straight/flush cards. This is the textbook “cooler”: both players have a premium hand, the money goes in, and the smaller pair is almost always drawing thin. For where each pair ranks, see the starting hands guide.

The coin flip

A pocket pair against two higher unpaired cards — like Q-Q vs. A-K — is the famous “race.” The pair is a small favorite, around 55% to 45%.

• The pair is ahead right now and stays ahead unless the overcards pair up.
• The overcards win by pairing either card (about six outs) or by making a straight or flush.

It feels like a 50/50 gamble because it nearly is. Tournaments are often decided by these flips, which is why they loom so large in a player’s memory.

Domination: the trap to avoid

A hand is dominated when it shares a card with a stronger hand. A-Q vs. A-K is the classic example.

Worked example: reading a matchup

You hold Q♣Q♦ and your opponent shoves; you’re fairly sure they have A♠K♠.

• Your queens are the current best hand — a pair beats no pair.
• You’re roughly a 54% favorite (a touch lower than 55% because their cards are suited, adding flush equity).
• You lose only if the board brings an ace, a king, or completes their spade or straight draws.

Calling here is correct: you’re a favorite for all your chips. If you lose, that’s the 46% showing up — not a bad decision. Separating the two is the essence of poker math.

Suited vs. offsuit: how much it’s worth

Players often overrate suitedness. Being suited adds roughly 2 to 4 percentage points of equity in most matchups — real, but small. A-K suited beats a pair like Q-Q about 46% of the time; A-K offsuit, about 43%. The suit matters, but it’s the ranks of your cards and whether you’re dominating or dominated that swing the odds by twenty or thirty points, not the two extra points from matching suits.

The four matchup shapes

Nearly every pre-flop confrontation falls into one of four buckets. Learn to name the shape and you’ll know the rough odds instantly.

Shape	Example	Favorite’s equity
Pair over pair	K-K vs. Q-Q	~82% (big favorite)
Pair vs. two overcards	J-J vs. A-K	~55% (coin flip)
Dominating hand	A-K vs. A-Q	~73% (big favorite)
Two overcards vs. two undercards	A-K vs. Q-J	~63% (favorite)

When you glance at your opponent’s likely holding and slot it into one of these shapes, the decision to call or fold a shove becomes almost automatic.

Why these numbers matter

Pre-flop equities turn all-in decisions into simple math: get your money in as a favorite and let variance sort out the rest. Memorize the big matchups — pair over pair, the coin flip, and domination — and you’ll instantly know whether a spot is a clear call, a gamble, or a fold. For the broader probabilities behind the game, see our guide to odds and probabilities, or return to the Texas Hold’em hub for the full strategy picture.