Five Card Draw Odds: Dealt Hands & Draw Chances
Five card draw odds for every hand on the deal, plus how often a four-flush, open-ended straight, or a kept pair improves on the single draw.
On this page · 3 sections
Out of the 2,598,960 possible five-card hands, this is how often each one lands before anyone draws. Standard poker hand rankings apply throughout.
| Hand | Chance | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Royal flush | 0.00015% | 1 in 649,740 |
| Straight flush | 0.0014% | 1 in 72,193 |
| Four of a kind | 0.024% | 1 in 4,165 |
| Full house | 0.14% | 1 in 694 |
| Flush | 0.20% | 1 in 509 |
| Straight | 0.39% | 1 in 255 |
| Three of a kind | 2.11% | 1 in 47 |
| Two pair | 4.75% | 1 in 21 |
| One pair | 42.3% | 1 in 2.4 |
| No pair | 50.1% | 1 in 2.0 |
Read the bottom two rows first: half of all deals are busted and another 42% are a lone pair. Most hands need to improve to win anything. The strong made hands — flush and above — are rare enough that they win almost on sight when they arrive. Anything two pair or better sits in the top 7% of deals, so if you look down at trips or two pair pat, you are already ahead of the field and your job flips from drawing to protecting.
This guide assumes you already know the five card draw rules: one draw, discard and replace as many cards as the house allows. What follows is the math underneath every draw decision.
What the single draw gives you
You draw once, so your one-card and three-card chances decide the hand. After your five cards come off the top, 47 cards remain unseen.
| Draw | Outs / cards | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Four to a flush, draw 1 | 9 of 47 | 19.1% |
| Open-ended straight, draw 1 | 8 of 47 | 17.0% |
| Inside (gutshot) straight, draw 1 | 4 of 47 | 8.5% |
| One pair, draw 3 (to two pair+) | — | 28.7% |
| Three of a kind, draw 2 (to full house or quads) | — | ~10% |
Notice the straight rows. An open-ender completes at 17% and a gutshot at 8.5% — exactly double. That gap is the whole reason open-enders are worth chasing at a normal price and gutshots almost never are: same cost, half the return.
Drawing to a pair, the hand you’ll hold most
The workhorse spot is a pair with three cards drawn. Keep the pair, pitch the other three, and the outcomes fall out like this:
- Any improvement to two pair or better: 28.7%
- Two pair: about 16.0%
- Three of a kind: about 11.4%
- Full house: about 1.0%
- Four of a kind: about 0.28%
So close to three deals in ten, your pair grows into at least two pair. There is a clean reason the three-card draw improves more than any alternative: every extra card is another shot to pair a kicker or trip up the pair you kept, and keeping only the two matched cards buys the most of those shots. Some players hold a high kicker and draw two instead — trading a little of that equity for concealment and the chance to win with the pair unimproved. Against opponents who track your draw, the trade can be worth it; against those who never look, take all three and the higher chance.
If you are dealt three of a kind, drawing two fills to a full house or quads about 10% of the time. Trips already beats nearly everything, so the standard line is to draw two and treat the improvement as a bonus — or draw one to dress the hand up as a two-pair or straight draw, giving away a sliver of equity for the disguise.
Turning the frequencies into rules
Two habits fall straight out of the numbers. First, draw to open-enders and flushes but let gutshots go unless the pot is huge and the card is effectively free — 8.5% is too thin to pay full price. Second, respect how scarce made hands are: with half the field busted and 42% holding one pair, a healthy two pair or trips usually takes it down, and you rarely need a flush to win.
Because there is only ever one draw, this game punishes over-drawing harder than any community-card format — you get a single swing, so make it count. Pair these frequencies with the reads and betting in the five card draw strategy guide.
Frequently asked
What are the odds of a flush in five card draw?
On the initial five-card deal a flush appears about 0.20% of the time, or roughly 1 in 509. When you hold four to a flush and draw one card, you complete it about 19% of the time — nine suit cards out of the 47 unseen.
Should I draw to an inside straight?
Usually no. A gutshot (inside) straight draw completes only about 8.5% of the time on a one-card draw — four outs out of 47. An open-ended straight draw doubles that to about 17%, which is why open-enders are drawable and gutshots generally are not.
How often does a pair improve when you draw three?
Keeping one pair and drawing three cards, you reach two pair or better about 29% of the time — roughly 16% two pair, 11% trips, and small slices for full houses and quads.