Omaha Poker Odds: A Flop & Draw Probability Chart
Omaha poker odds run higher than Hold'em because you hold four cards. Here's a chart of flop and draw probabilities plus how to use them at the table.
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Omaha poker odds run noticeably higher than Hold’em because each player holds four cards instead of two, creating six two-card combinations per hand. That means you flop sets, straights, and flush draws far more often — but so does everyone else, so hitting is only half the battle. The number that actually matters is how often you make the nuts, not just a made hand. Below is a probability chart plus a practical guide to reading it at the table.
Omaha flop odds chart
These are the chances of a specific event on the flop, assuming your hand has the right shape (a pair to flop a set, a suit to flop a flush draw, and so on):
| Event on the flop | Approx. probability | Rough odds |
|---|---|---|
| Flop a set (holding one pair) | ~12% | 1 in 8 |
| Flop a set (holding two pairs) | ~23% | 1 in 4 |
| Flop a flush draw (single-suited) | ~12% | 1 in 8 |
| Flop a made flush (single-suited) | ~1% | 1 in 100 |
| Flop an open-ended straight draw (connected) | ~28% | ~1 in 3.5 |
| Flop a big wrap (13+ outs) | ~10% | 1 in 10 |
Because you hold four cards, a double-suited, connected hand can flop multiple draws at once — a flush draw and a wrap together are common, which is why Omaha equities are so close and pots get big fast.
Why the numbers beat Hold’em
In Hold’em you have one two-card combination. In Omaha you have six. A hand like J♥ 10♥ 9♦ 8♦ can make straights around four different rank groups and flushes in two suits. That extra connectivity is exactly why our PLO starting hands guide grades hands on connectivity and suitedness rather than raw high cards.
More combinations also means your opponents hit more. Flopping a flush draw at 12% feels great until you remember someone else may have flopped the nut flush draw, leaving your king-high draw dominated.
Counting draw outs the Omaha way
The single biggest source of value — and the biggest odds mistake — is the wrap: a straight draw using three or four connected cards that can complete around several ranks.
The problem is that the familiar shortcut overstates these draws.
The rule of 4 and 2 doesn’t fit
In Hold’em, multiply outs by 4 (two cards to come) or 2 (one card) for a quick equity estimate. In Omaha this badly overcounts once you get past about 8 outs, because:
- Outs overlap and some pair the board, making full houses for opponents.
- Many “outs” make the second-best straight or a non-nut flush.
- Redraws matter: hitting your card on the turn can still lose on the river.
A cleaner approach is to use direct equity benchmarks. Our Omaha pot odds and outs guide walks through how big wraps convert to real percentages and where to discount your outs.
Turning odds into decisions
Odds are only useful next to price. The workflow at the table:
- Identify how many of your outs make the nuts, not just a hand.
- Discount outs that pair the board or make non-nut flushes.
- Compare your discounted equity to the pot odds you’re being offered.
- Fold draws that are big but not to the nuts when facing heavy action multiway.
The general framework for pricing draws — pot odds, implied odds, and equity — lives on our odds and math hub, and the Omaha-specific twist on blockers and which draws to trust is covered in PLO blockers and draws.
The takeaway
Omaha’s higher hit frequencies are seductive, but the game rewards players who ask “is this the nuts?” before “did I hit?” Memorize a few benchmark numbers — 12% to flop a set with one pair, ~12% to flop a flush draw, ~10% for a big wrap — and always discount for board pairing and non-nut outs. For the full context on how these probabilities fit into a winning game, start at the Omaha and PLO hub.
Frequently asked
What are the odds of flopping a set in Omaha with a pair?
About 12%, or roughly 1 in 8 — the same as Hold'em when you hold a single pair. The edge comes when you hold two separate pairs among your four cards, which gives you two chances to hit a set and lifts the odds to about 1 in 4.
How often do you flop a flush draw in Omaha?
With a single-suited hand (two cards of one suit) you flop a flush draw about 12% of the time. Double-suited hands roughly double that chance across the two suits.
Are Omaha odds higher than Texas Hold'em?
Yes. Four hole cards create far more two-card combinations, so you flop draws and made hands more often. The catch is that your opponents do too, so the nuts matters more than raw frequency.
Why can't I use the rule of 4 and 2 in Omaha?
It overcounts. With big wraps you can have 13 to 20 outs, and multiplying that by four badly overstates your equity because the outs overlap and some make second-best hands. Learn Omaha-specific benchmarks instead.