Poker Odds: Straight vs Flush
A flush beats a straight because flushes are rarer. Here are the exact probabilities of each hand and the odds of completing each draw.
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A flush beats a straight for one reason: flushes are rarer. Out of the 2,598,960 possible five-card poker hands, there are 10,200 straights but only 5,108 flushes — so a flush is close to twice as hard to make, and the hand rankings reward that scarcity. When you’re drawing, though, the picture is closer than the rankings suggest: a flush draw (9 outs) hits about 35% of the time by the river, a straight draw (8 outs) about 32%.
Why the flush outranks the straight
Poker hand rankings are ordered by frequency: the rarer the hand, the higher it ranks. Compare the exact counts of each hand among all five-card combinations (straight flushes are excluded from both, since they’re a separate, higher category):
| Hand | Combinations | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Straight (excluding straight flush) | 10,200 | ~0.39% |
| Flush (excluding straight flush) | 5,108 | ~0.20% |
A flush shows up roughly half as often as a straight, so it beats one. This isn’t an arbitrary rule — it falls straight out of the combinatorics. There are only four suits to build a flush from, but ten distinct rank sequences (five-high through ace-high) to build a straight, and each straight can be assembled from many suit combinations.
Drawing to a straight
The most common straight draw is the open-ended straight draw (OESD): four connected cards needing one more on either end. Two ranks complete it, four cards of each, so 8 outs.
- From the flop (two cards to come): about 32% to complete by the river.
- From the turn (one card to come): about 17%.
A gutshot (inside straight draw) needs one specific rank in the middle — 4 outs, roughly 16.5% from the flop and 9% from the turn. Half the outs, roughly half the equity.
Drawing to a flush
A flush draw is four cards of one suit needing a fifth. Thirteen cards share your suit; you hold two and see two on the board, leaving 9 outs.
- From the flop (two cards to come): about 35% to complete by the river.
- From the turn (one card to come): about 19.5%.
So the flush draw carries one more out than the OESD and completes a few percentage points more often — while also making the higher-ranked hand if you both get there.
Straight draw vs flush draw, head to head
| Draw | Outs | Flop → river | Turn → river | Makes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gutshot straight | 4 | ~16.5% | ~9% | Straight |
| Open-ended straight | 8 | ~32% | ~17% | Straight |
| Flush draw | 9 | ~35% | ~19.5% | Flush (higher) |
The flush draw wins on both counts — more outs and a stronger made hand. But that isn’t the whole story.
Disguise: the straight’s advantage
A flush draw is loud. When three cards of one suit hit the board and the flush completes, every opponent sees the danger and shuts down — which hurts your implied odds. A completed straight is quieter: a board like 9-8-6 with a 7 on the turn doesn’t scream “straight” the way three hearts screams “flush.”
That means straights often get paid off more generously than flushes of equal completion odds. Fewer outs, but sneakier value. Which draw is truly better depends on the board and your opponent — a distinction that plays out on every postflop street.
The straight flush: both at once
Combine the two and you get the second-strongest hand in poker (behind only the royal flush, its highest form). A straight flush requires five consecutive cards all of the same suit — so both conditions at once. It’s staggeringly rare:
- 40 straight flushes total (10 sequences per suit × 4 suits), including the four royal flushes.
- That’s about 0.0015% of five-card hands — roughly 1 in 65,000.
Because it satisfies the requirements of both a straight and a flush simultaneously, it sits far above either alone. You’ll go long stretches without seeing one.
Quick reference
- Flush beats straight — always, because it’s rarer.
- Flush draw: 9 outs, ~35% flop, ~19.5% turn.
- Straight draw (OESD): 8 outs, ~32% flop, ~17% turn.
- Gutshot: 4 outs, ~16.5% flop, ~9% turn.
- Straight flush: ~1 in 65,000 — the rarest of the three.
The takeaway
The flush outranks the straight because it’s harder to make, and the flush draw has a slight edge in outs and made-hand strength. But the straight draw’s disguise can make it more profitable in practice. Learn to count both accurately with poker outs, understand the combinatorics behind the rankings, and compare every draw to its price using pot odds. It all comes together in the poker odds & math hub.
Frequently asked
Why does a flush beat a straight?
Because a flush is rarer. Out of all possible five-card hands, there are 10,200 straights but only 5,108 flushes, so the flush is roughly twice as hard to make and therefore ranks higher.
What are the odds of making a straight vs a flush from a draw?
An open-ended straight draw (8 outs) completes about 32% of the time by the river from the flop. A flush draw (9 outs) completes about 35%. The flush draw is slightly more likely to hit because it has one more out.
What are the odds of a straight flush?
A straight flush is extremely rare — about 0.0015% of five-card hands, or roughly 1 in 65,000. It combines the requirements of both a straight and a flush, which is why it ranks near the top of the hand rankings.
Which draw should you prefer, straight or flush?
A flush draw has more outs (9 vs 8) and makes the higher-ranked hand, but a flush is more obvious to opponents on a three-suit board. A straight is better disguised, which can improve your implied odds.