Flush Odds in Poker: Draw & Hit Chances

You flop four cards to a flush. Should you keep going? The answer lives in two numbers: a flush draw completes by the river roughly 35% of the time, and hits on any single card about 19.6% of the time. Learn those, know when each applies, and you can price nearly every flush decision in Texas Hold’em on the spot.

Everything traces back to one count. A suit holds 13 cards; a flush draw already uses four of them, so exactly nine cards — your outs — can complete it. Nine outs is the number under all the math below.

The numbers at a glance

Situation	Outs	Chance to hit	Odds against
Flop to river (two cards)	9	~35.0%	~1.9 : 1
Flop to turn (one card)	9	~19.1%	~4.2 : 1
Turn to river (one card)	9	~19.6%	~4.1 : 1

The 35% figure applies only when you’ll see both the turn and river for the current price — typically because you’re all-in on the flop. If money is still to be bet, judge each street on its own with the one-card figure, roughly 19–20%.

Where 35% comes from

The clean way to get the two-card number is to compute the chance of missing both cards, then subtract from one. After the flop, 47 cards are unseen and 38 of them don’t help you:

• Miss on the turn: 38/47
• Miss on the river: 37/46
• Miss both: (38/47) × (37/46) = 0.6503
• Hit at least one: 1 − 0.6503 = 0.3497 ≈ 35.0%

For a single card it’s just your outs over unseen cards. Turn to river, that’s 9/46 = 19.6%; flop to turn it’s 9/47 = 19.1%. The tiny difference is one extra unseen card on the earlier street.

Turning a percentage into a call

A hit chance means nothing without the price beside it. Compare your odds against the draw to your pot odds — the ratio of what you’d win to what you must call:

1. The pot is $80 and your opponent bets $20, making it $100. You call $20 to win $100, so you’re getting 5-to-1.
2. Your one-card flush draw is about 4-to-1 against.
3. 5-to-1 beats 4-to-1, so the call is profitable — the pot is paying you more than the draw is worth.

The rule collapses to one line: if the pot odds are larger than the odds against your draw, call. A one-card flush draw (~4-to-1) needs the pot to lay better than 4-to-1. All-in on the flop, your draw improves to ~1.9-to-1, so it clears a far lower bar.

The mistake that costs the most

The single biggest error is using 35% when it doesn’t apply. That number assumes you’ll see both remaining cards for the price in front of you. If your opponent will bet again on the turn, the river isn’t guaranteed, so you must price the turn alone at ~19%. Reserve the 35% figure for spots where the rest of the money is already in — almost always an all-in on the flop.

Odds of flopping into a flush

Start with two suited cards and the flop rewards you more often than you’d guess:

• Flopping a made flush — three more of your suit land at once: about 0.84%, or 1 in 119.
• Flopping a flush draw — exactly two more of your suit, for four total: about 10.9%.

So roughly one flop in nine hands you a live draw when you begin with suited cards. That’s the main reason suited holdings carry extra value, though the made-flush jackpot is genuinely rare. To see how a flush comes together street by street, read how to make a flush.

A worked hand

You hold A♠ 7♠ and the flop is K♠ 9♠ 2♦. You have the nut flush draw: nine spades complete it, and because you hold the ace, any spade gives you the best possible flush. Your opponent shoves all-in on the flop, so you’ll see both the turn and river.

Your chance to hit is ~35%, about 1.9-to-1 against. If the pot lays you better than 1.9-to-1 on the call, it’s profitable over the long run. The ace adds a second edge: when you hit, you can’t be beaten by a bigger flush — a real advantage over a low flush draw, which can complete and still lose. That’s why the nut flush draw is the one you most want to be chasing.

Odds of being dealt a flush cold

Ignoring draws and looking at a single random five-card hand, a flush is scarce:

• Non-straight flushes: 5,108 combinations — four suits × 1,287 five-card selections per suit, minus the 40 straight flushes.
• Total five-card hands: 2,598,960.
• Odds: about 0.20%, or 1 in 509.

That scarcity is exactly why the flush sits high on the ranking chart. For the complete five-card breakdown across every hand, see the poker hand probability chart.

The short version worth memorizing

• A flush draw has nine outs — the remaining cards of your suit.
• Two cards to come: ~35% to hit; one card: ~19.6%.
• Rule of 4 and 2: 9 outs ≈ 36% (two cards) or 18% (one card).
• Being dealt a flush in five cards is about 1 in 509.

Lock those in, lean on the rule of 4 and 2 for speed at the table, and check your draw’s true odds against the pot before every call. The wider math lives in the poker hand probability chart, the full ladder at the hand rankings hub, and more on pricing every decision in the odds and math section.