Poker Win Rate and ROI Explained
Win rate (bb/100) measures cash-game profit; ROI measures tournament profit. Here's how to calculate both, what counts as good, and a worked example.
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Your win rate measures how much you make in cash games — expressed as big blinds per 100 hands (bb/100) online or dollars per hour live. Your ROI (return on investment) measures tournament profit as a percentage of what you put in. Both tell you whether you’re actually beating the game and how big a bankroll your results demand. Here’s how to calculate each and what the numbers mean.
Cash-game win rate: bb/100
Online cash results are measured in big blinds won per 100 hands, which lets you compare performance across stakes. The formula:
Win rate (bb/100) = (net big blinds won ÷ hands played) × 100
If you win 1,500 big blinds over 60,000 hands, that’s (1,500 ÷ 60,000) × 100 = 2.5 bb/100 — a genuine, if modest, winning rate.
Live cash is instead quoted per hour, because volume is so low that per-100-hands figures swing wildly. A small-stakes live regular might target $15–$30/hour; that’s the number to plug into bankroll planning.
What counts as a good win rate
Rates fall as stakes rise, because opponents get tougher. Rough online cash benchmarks:
| bb/100 | What it means |
|---|---|
| Below 0 | Losing player — leaks to fix before adding volume |
| 0–2 | Breakeven to marginal after rake |
| 2–5 | Solid winner at most stakes |
| 5–10 | Strong; typical of good regulars at low/mid stakes |
| 10+ | Excellent — usually only sustainable in very soft games |
Anyone quoting 30 bb/100 over a huge sample is either at micro stakes against beginners or misremembering. Higher stakes compress win rates toward zero.
Tournament results: ROI
Tournaments are lumpy — you lose most and occasionally win big — so profit is measured as return on investment:
ROI = total profit ÷ total buy-ins (buy-in + fee), as a percentage
The buy-in figure must include the rake/fee. A “$100 + $9” tournament costs $109, and that full amount is your investment.
Worked example: a month of MTTs
You play a month of online tournaments:
- Games played: 200
- Average all-in cost: $22 each (buy-in + fee)
- Total invested: 200 × $22 = $4,400
- Total cashes: $5,280
- Profit: $5,280 − $4,400 = $880
- ROI: 880 ÷ 4,400 = 20%
A 20% ROI is excellent — if it holds up. But 200 tournaments is a tiny sample; a single deep run inflates it. Tournament ROI needs thousands of games to be reliable, which is exactly why tournaments demand a 100+ buy-in bankroll: the swings around that average are enormous.
Why these numbers drive your bankroll
Win rate and variance together tell you how big a cushion you need. A higher, steadier win rate means you climb out of downswings faster and can run a slightly leaner roll. A thin edge in a high-variance format means the opposite — you need more buy-ins to survive the swings.
The practical loop:
- Track everything so your win rate and ROI come from real data, not vibes — a dedicated tracker makes this automatic.
- Confirm you’re actually winning at a meaningful sample before moving up.
- Size your bankroll to your win rate and the format’s variance.
- Fix leaks if the number is negative — study before you add volume. The odds and math hub is where a lot of small leaks hide.
Common mistakes reading your stats
- Trusting small samples. A hot week is not a win rate. Suspend judgment until the sample is large.
- Ignoring rake in ROI. Leaving out fees flatters your tournament results and hides breakeven play.
- Mixing formats. A combined number across cash and tournaments, or across wildly different stakes, tells you nothing actionable. Segment your data.
- Chasing a rate up in stakes. Your 8 bb/100 at $0.25 blinds will not follow you to $2 blinds. Expect it to shrink and re-prove it.
How sample size changes the picture
The same win rate means very different things at different volumes. A quick sense of how much a 5 bb/100 winner’s results can wander:
| Hands played | How trustworthy is the number? |
|---|---|
| 5,000 | Almost meaningless — swings dominate |
| 25,000 | A hint, but a losing player can still look like a winner |
| 100,000 | Reasonably reliable for cash |
| 250,000+ | Solid — the edge has clearly surfaced |
Tournament ROI needs even more: because a handful of deep runs carry your entire profit, an ROI over a few hundred games can be wildly off in either direction. Treat any tournament ROI under ~1,000 games as a rough guess, not a verdict on your skill.
Put it together
Win rate (bb/100 or $/hour) and ROI turn “am I any good?” into a number — but only a trustworthy one at a large sample. Measure honestly, size your bankroll to the edge you can actually prove, and revisit the figure as you climb. Keep the data clean with a bankroll tracker, and return to the bankroll management hub to fit these numbers into the full system.
Frequently asked
What is a good win rate in poker?
For online cash, roughly 2–5 bb/100 is a solid winner and 5–10 bb/100 is strong; higher is rare at meaningful stakes. Live win rates are quoted per hour instead — a few big blinds per hour, or $10–$30/hour at small stakes.
What does bb/100 mean?
Big blinds won per 100 hands. It normalizes results across stakes: 5 bb/100 means you win five big blinds for every hundred hands, whether you play $0.50 or $5 blinds.
How do you calculate poker ROI?
ROI = total profit ÷ total buy-ins (including fees), as a percentage. Invest $2,000 in tournament buy-ins and finish +$400, and your ROI is 400 / 2,000 = 20%.
What is a good tournament ROI?
For online MTTs, a long-term ROI of 10–20% is very good and 20%+ is elite. Small samples are meaningless — tournament results need thousands of games to be trustworthy.